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Markets · 3 Nov 2026Policy rateBank of Canada2.50%YieldsCA 2Y3.26%−2 bpCA 5Y3.46%−5 bpCA 10Y3.74%−4 bpCanadian dollarCAD/USD0.7146−0.11%CAD/EUR0.6385−0.02%CAD/GBP0.5325−0.15%CAD/JPY113.25+0.34%CryptoBTCUS$78,310+1.40%ETHUS$2,316+1.71%
Monday’s Brief

Morning Brief

Tuesday 3 November 2026

Brent crude fell 7.63% to US$104.77 a barrel on Monday on hopes of talks to end the U.S.-Iran war.

The desk’s view todayWe expect the Bank of Canada to hold at 2.50% at its next decision rather than raise again.

Story 1 of 5

Oil has its sharpest one-day fall in months on U.S.-Iran peace hopes

Two tankers moored at an oil refinery jetty
Photo: Calistemon, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

01What happened

Brent crude closed 7.63% lower at US$104.77 a barrel on Monday 2 November, and the December U.S. crude contract fell US$7.66 to US$96.46. Reuters reported that the slide followed talks between Iranian and Qatari officials on a deal to end the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, with a draft proposal now circulating. Brent had ended October at a six-month high.

Gold moved the other way: the December contract rose US$70.70 to US$3,969.60 an ounce.

02Our view

One day of diplomacy does not price out a war. Talks between Iran and its mediators have stalled before, and with Brent still above US$100 the market is pricing hope, not barrels moving through the strait. We treat lower prices as a reprieve rather than a trend. We would change that view if tanker traffic resumes under an agreed deal, or if Brent settles below US$100 for several days in a row.

03Why it matters to you

If you heat with oil or propane, or run vehicles for a business, a lower price this week is a chance to fix part of the winter’s cost. Knowing how much of a rebound your budget can absorb tells you how much to lock in.

Book a budget and savings check

Sources Reuters, Oil drops over 4% on hopes of progress in talks on ending US-Iran war; Stock Titan, Stock market today, November 2, 2026; The Canadian Press, Industrials, materials help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. markets post mixed results

Story 2 of 5

Ottawa and Washington talk of a trade “concept” as the TSX climbs

Prime Minister Mark Carney speaking at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026
Photo: World Economic Forum, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

01What happened

Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Sunday he had a “good conversation” with President Donald Trump on the future of Canada-U.S. trade, and that teams from both countries would work in the coming weeks toward a result. Trump told reporters in Iowa there was “the concept of a deal” that would be good for U.S. farmers, without giving terms or a timeline. High-level talks broke down in August, after which the U.S. put a 50% levy on about $20 billion of Canadian goods and Canada answered with matching tariffs.

The S&P/TSX composite rose 181.06 points to 35,801.09 on Monday, led by industrials and materials while energy fell. In New York the Dow rose 213.67 points, the S&P 500 fell 38.67 and the Nasdaq dropped 272.68 as technology shares slid. The loonie closed at 71.54 U.S. cents.

02Our view

This is the most constructive tone since talks broke down in August, but a “concept” is not a text. Neither side has named tariff rates, sectors or dates, and the most sensitive areas are usually the last to be settled. We would not plan around tariff relief until terms are published. A signed agreement with specific rates, or a public timetable for lifting the 50% levy, would change our view.

03Why it matters to you

If your business buys from or sells into the U.S., a deal in principle changes nothing until terms are signed. Planning next year with and without today’s tariffs shows how much cushion you actually need.

Book a business review

Sources Al Jazeera (AFP, AP, Reuters), Carney signals progress on Canada-US trade deal talks as midterms loom; Investing.com, TSX rebounds as oil tumbles on hopes of US-Iran peace talks, materials stocks gain; The Canadian Press, Industrials, materials help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. markets post mixed results

Story 3 of 5

Bond yields ease after the hike, and Macklem goes to Parliament today

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at a Monetary Policy Report press conference
Photo: Bank of Canada - Banque du Canada from Canada, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

01What happened

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on 28 October, its first increase since July 2023, and said it could need to raise rates further. It now expects CPI inflation to average about 3% in 2027 before returning to the 2% target in mid-2028.

Since then Government of Canada bond yieldsBond yield The annual return an investor gets for lending to a government or company through a bond. Yields rise when bond prices fall. Fixed mortgage rates are priced from the 5-year Government of Canada yield. have eased. The 5-year benchmark closed at 3.51% on Friday 30 October, down from 3.62% on the day of the decision, and the 2-year fell to 3.28% from 3.41%. Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers appear before the House of Commons finance committee today and the Senate banking committee on Thursday.

02Our view

The bond market is starting to doubt a second hike, and we lean the same way. The hike was aimed at stopping high energy prices from spreading into wider inflation, and both oil and yields have since eased. If oil holds near US$100, the case for the Bank to wait is stronger than the case to move again. A firm signal from the Governor today, or a renewed jump in oil, would change that.

03Why it matters to you

If you have a variable mortgage or a line of credit, your payment rose with last week’s hike. If you renew in the next few months, knowing your options before the renewal letter arrives gives you time to choose.

Book a mortgage renewal review

Sources Bank of Canada, Selected bond yields; Bank of Canada, Upcoming events; Xinhua via Ghana News Agency, Bank of Canada raises key interest rate to 2.5%; Trading Economics, Bank of Canada raises rates for 1st time since 2023

Story 4 of 5

Budget 2026 lands Thursday: what to watch for your money

François-Philippe Champagne speaking at a press conference in Toronto
Photo: Collision Conf, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

01What happened

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne will table Budget 2026 on Thursday 5 November. The government has titled it “Masters of Our Destiny” and framed it around economic sovereignty, with a stated aim of a stronger, more independent and more resilient economy and a more affordable life for Canadians. No measures have been officially released.

02Our view

The headlines on Thursday will be about sovereignty and spending, while the details that matter most for households will sit in the tax measures annex. Budget-day rumours are often wrong or incomplete, so we would wait for the documents before acting on any reported change. We would revisit that only if a measure takes effect on budget day itself, which would make a quick review worthwhile.

03Why it matters to you

If you are planning a property sale, a large gift or an RRSP withdrawal, Thursday’s budget could change the tax on it. Knowing which rules your plans rely on lets you act quickly once the details are out.

Book a tax planning review

Sources Department of Finance Canada, Government of Canada to release Budget 2026 on November 5, 2026; Global News, Budget 2026 title and theme focus on Canada’s sovereignty, minister reveals

Story 5 of 5

Factory surveys split: U.S. busy and paying more, Canada slipping

Exterior of the Windsor Assembly automobile plant in Windsor, Ontario
Photo: Decimal10, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

01What happened

The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing index rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5, a tenth straight month of expansion. Its prices index eased to 75.2 from 77.9 but still points to widespread increases, with 53.1% of firms reporting higher prices. In Canada, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 from 51.5, back below the 50 line that separates growth from contraction.

02Our view

Canadian manufacturers face a cost problem more than a demand problem. U.S. demand is strong, but input prices remain high and a contracting Canadian sector has little room to pass them on. Relief depends more on the trade talks than on interest rates. A Canadian PMI back above 50 alongside a further fall in the U.S. prices index would tell us the squeeze is easing.

03Why it matters to you

If your business depends on imported parts or materials, costs are rising faster than many firms can pass them on. Knowing how many months your cash covers fixed costs at today’s margins is the first step.

Book a business review

Sources Institute for Supply Management, Manufacturing PMI at 55.5%; October 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI Report; Investing.com, TSX rebounds as oil tumbles on hopes of US-Iran peace talks, materials stocks gain

Today’s news, considered against your own plans.

If one of these stories bears on your mortgage, savings, income or business, we would be glad to go through it with you and explain clearly what, if anything, it means for you.

Book a conversation

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Sources

  • Reuters, Oil drops over 4% on hopes of progress in talks on ending US-Iran war, 2026-11-02
  • Stock Titan, Stock market today, November 2, 2026, 2026-11-02
  • The Canadian Press, Industrials, materials help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. markets post mixed results, 2026-11-02
  • Al Jazeera (AFP, AP, Reuters), Carney signals progress on Canada-US trade deal talks as midterms loom, 2026-11-01
  • Investing.com, TSX rebounds as oil tumbles on hopes of US-Iran peace talks, materials stocks gain, 2026-11-02
  • Bank of Canada, Selected bond yields, 2026-10-30
  • Bank of Canada, Upcoming events, 2026-11-03
  • Xinhua via Ghana News Agency, Bank of Canada raises key interest rate to 2.5%, 2026-10-28
  • Trading Economics, Bank of Canada raises rates for 1st time since 2023, 2026-10-28
  • Department of Finance Canada, Government of Canada to release Budget 2026 on November 5, 2026, 2026-10-20
  • Global News, Budget 2026 title and theme focus on Canada’s sovereignty, minister reveals, 2026-10-29
  • Institute for Supply Management, Manufacturing PMI at 55.5%; October 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI Report, 2026-11-02
  • Statistics Canada, Release schedule, 2026-10-30
  • NDFX, RBA hike, JOLTS and midterms: daily market, 2026-11-03
  • IG, US 2026 midterm elections explained: key dates and market implications, 2026-10-15
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All information in this material is as of 3 November 2026 unless otherwise indicated. Market figures shown in the live rails are supplied by the sources named beneath them and may be delayed.

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