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LiveBank of Canada 2.25% 0 bpCanada 5-year 3.65% 0 bpCanada 10-year 3.95% +1 bpCAD / USD 0.7170 −0.21%CAD / EUR 0.6222 −0.05%Bitcoin US$75,904 +0.59%Next BoC decision 28 OctBank of Canada, CoinGecko · 2026-09-16

Ascenthya Research Desk · Wednesday 16 September 2026

Insights

A daily read on the money that reaches you. What happened, why it matters, and what we think, in that order, every time.

Morning Brief by email
Today's BriefFriday 11 September 2026 · 12 min read
Front of the Federal Reserve Board’s Eccles Building in Washington, DC
Photo: Federalreserve, PUBLIC DOMAIN, via Wikimedia Commons

Morning Brief for Friday 11 September 2026

  1. Front of the Federal Reserve Board’s Eccles Building in Washington, DCU.S. inflation stayed at 3.4% in August, and a Fed hike next week is now the base case
  2. A crude oil tanker under way on open waterOil settled above US$100 for a second day as the Strait of Hormuz stays close to shut
  3. Exterior of the Toronto Stock Exchange building on Bay StreetStocks fell for a fourth day: the TSX lost 1.1% as yields and oil squeezed valuations
  4. Close-up of a Canadian 20 dollar polymer banknoteHousehold net worth rose 2.9% to $19.1 trillion, and debt ratios fell, but the gains came from stocks, not homes
  5. Row of new homes under construction in the Blatchford neighbourhood of EdmontonCMHC says Canada needs 417,000 to 469,000 homes a year and is building about half that
Read the full brief
Chart of the day30 trading days · 4 Aug to 15 Sep 2026 · Bank of Canada

The Canada 5-year yield, the number that sets fixed mortgage rates

Canada 5-year, 30 trading days, 4 Aug to 15 Sep 2026. Low 3.17%, high 3.65%.3.65%3.49%3.33%3.17%4 Aug18 Aug31 Aug15 Sep 2026
3.65% 0 bpas of 2026-09-15
This week's Insight7 min read
The Bank of Japan headquarters building in Tokyo
Photo: public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
The world’s anchor bond just hit 3%. Your mortgage renewal noticed.Canadian fixed mortgage rates and the price of every bond in your portfolio are set by this market, not by the Bank of Canada.
Front of the Federal Reserve Board’s Eccles Building in Washington, DC
Photo: Federalreserve, PUBLIC DOMAIN, via Wikimedia Commons
Energy, commodities & climateMorning Brief for Friday 11 September 2026U.S. consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August with core inflation up 0.3% in the month, and futures now price about an 86% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike on 16 September.
A crude oil tanker under way at sea, illustrating the oil price move above US$100 a barrel
Photo: Thomas Timlen from Singapore, Singapore, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons
Energy, commodities & climateMorning Brief for Thursday 10 September 2026Brent crude closed near US$101 a barrel on 9 September, its first close above US$100 since July, and this morning the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points while U.S. producer prices came in at 5.4% over the year.
The Ambassador Bridge linking Windsor, Ontario and Detroit, the busiest Canada-US trade crossing
Photo: Crisco 1492, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Business & entrepreneurshipMorning Brief for Wednesday 9 September 2026Canada’s counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion of U.S. goods took effect on Monday, the same week oil returned to US$97 and markets moved to a 60% chance of a U.S. rate hike on 16 September.
The Bank of Canada building on Wellington Street, Ottawa
Photo: Colin Rose from Montreal, Canada, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Rates & inflationMorning Brief for Thursday 3 September 2026The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% for a seventh straight decision and said the longer oil stays high, the greater the risk it turns into persistent inflation.
The Bank of Japan headquarters building in Tokyo
Photo: public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Rates & inflationThe world’s anchor bond just hit 3%. Your mortgage renewal noticed.Japan's 10-year bond yield hit 3.0% this week for the first time since 1996, and yields from Washington to Frankfurt are at highs not seen in fifteen to thirty years.

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