Skip to main content
General Public
ascenthya
Let’s Chat
General Public
ascenthya
Markets · 3 Nov 2026Policy rateBank of Canada2.50%YieldsCA 2Y3.26%CA 5Y3.49%+3 bpCA 10Y3.77%+3 bpCanadian dollarCAD/USD0.7146−0.11%CAD/EUR0.6385−0.02%CAD/GBP0.5325−0.15%CAD/JPY113.25+0.34%CryptoBTCUS$80,673+4.36%ETHUS$2,434+6.41%

Morning Brief · Tuesday 3 November

What moved your money on Tuesday.

The day’s stories, what each one means for you, and the view we are prepared to be wrong about.

Read today’s Brief

What happenedBrent crude fell 7.63% to US$104.77 a barrel on Monday on hopes of talks to end the U.S.-Iran war.Read the Brief Our viewWe expect the Bank of Canada to hold at 2.50% at its next decision rather than raise again.Why we think so What it means for youOil drove the Bank of Canada’s rate hike last week. A lasting decline would ease gasoline and heating costs and weaken the case for another increase.Read the Brief

Morning Brief · Tuesday 3 November

Today’s stories

Read all 5 in order
Two tankers moored at an oil refinery jetty

Story 1 of 5

Oil has its sharpest one-day fall in months on U.S.-Iran peace hopes

Brent crude closed 7.63% lower at US$104.77 a barrel on Monday 2 November, and the December U.S. crude contract fell US$7.66 to US$96.46. Reuters reported that the slide followed talks between Iranian and Qatari officials on a deal to end the U.S.-Israeli…

Why it matters to you

If you heat with oil or propane, or run vehicles for a business, a lower price this week is a chance to fix part of the winter’s cost. Knowing how much of a rebound your budget can absorb tells you how much to lock in.

Book a budget and savings check

Prime Minister Mark Carney speaking at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026Story 2 of 5Ottawa and Washington talk of a trade “concept” as the TSX climbsRead Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at a Monetary Policy Report press conferenceStory 3 of 5Bond yields ease after the hike, and Macklem goes to Parliament todayRead François-Philippe Champagne speaking at a press conference in TorontoStory 4 of 5Budget 2026 lands Thursday: what to watch for your moneyRead Exterior of the Windsor Assembly automobile plant in Windsor, OntarioStory 5 of 5Factory surveys split: U.S. busy and paying more, Canada slippingRead
The Bank of Japan headquarters building in TokyoWeekly Insight · 2 September 2026The world’s anchor bond just hit 3%. Your mortgage renewal noticed.Canadian fixed mortgage rates and the price of every bond in your portfolio are set by this market, not by the Bank of Canada.Read the Weekly

Earlier Briefs and Insights

A crude oil tanker under way at seaMorning Brief · Mon 2 Nov 2026Brent crude fell about 3% to near US$110 a barrel on Monday after Iran floated a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Container cranes and ships at the Port of VancouverMorning Brief · Fri 30 Oct 2026Canada’s economy was flat in August and Statistics Canada’s early estimate has it shrinking 0.1% in September, two days after the Bank of Canada raised rates to 2.50%.The Bank of Canada building on University Avenue in TorontoMorning Brief · Thu 29 Oct 2026The Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate to 2.50%, its first increase since July 2023, and the six big banks moved prime to 4.70% from today.Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at the January 2022 Monetary Policy Report press conferenceMorning Brief · Wed 28 Oct 2026The Bank of Canada decides at 06:45 PT with a hike to 2.50% about 77% priced, and the Fed follows at 11:00 PT with a hold expected by 94 of 100 economists.Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers seated at a Monetary Policy Report press conferenceMorning Brief · Tue 27 Oct 2026The Bank of Canada decides tomorrow at 06:45 PT, with markets pricing roughly a 75% to 80% chance of a hike to 2.50% and 19 of 34 economists in the Reuters poll expecting one.Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at the press conference for the July 2022 Monetary Policy ReportMorning Brief · Mon 26 Oct 2026Money markets and 19 of 34 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Bank of Canada to raise its overnight rate to 2.50% on Wednesday 28 October, the first increase since July 2023, while Brent eased to US$114.60 after a 6% weekly gain.The Toronto Eaton Centre shopping mall in downtown Toronto, photographed in August 2025Morning Brief · Fri 23 Oct 2026August retail sales rose 1.2% with every subsector up and a 0.7% advance estimate for September, while the Nasdaq fell 2.6% and Brent settled at US$113.17, its highest in five months.Canadian dollar banknotes in black and whiteMorning Brief · Thu 22 Oct 2026Scotiabank, Desjardins and BMO now forecast a Bank of Canada hike to 2.50% on 28 October, with swap markets pricing the odds near 80%, and September producer prices jumped 2.0% in the month.The Centre Block of the Canadian Parliament with the Peace Tower in front, OttawaMorning Brief · Wed 21 Oct 2026The Parliamentary Budget Officer cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.9%, sees inflation averaging 2.8% this year and now assumes the Bank of Canada starts raising rates in early 2027.

News is general. Your situation is not.

If something in today’s news touches your mortgage, savings, income or business, an Ascenthya advisor will review it with you against your own plans and tell you plainly whether anything should change.

Book a conversation

Free · optional

The Morning Brief in your inbox at 06:00 Pacific.

The day’s stories, what each means for you, and our view. Unsubscribe in one click.

Email subscriptions open shortly.

Important disclosure information

All information in this material is as of 4 November 2026 unless otherwise indicated. Market figures shown in the live rails are supplied by the sources named beneath them and may be delayed.

See moreSee less

This material is prepared by the Ascenthya Research Desk for informational and educational purposes only. It is general in nature and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. It may be shared by link, but may not be copied, reproduced, republished or distributed in whole or in part, or altered in any way, without the prior written consent of Ascenthya (together with its affiliates, “Ascenthya”).

The views and opinions expressed are those of the Ascenthya Research Desk as of the date shown. They may not reflect the views of Ascenthya as a firm, are subject to change at any time without notice, and Ascenthya has no obligation to update them. Where a view is labelled as a house view, it is an opinion, not a forecast, and the conditions that would change it are stated alongside it.

Nothing in this material constitutes an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security, insurance product or other financial instrument, or to adopt any investment, tax, estate, insurance or financing strategy. It is not an invitation to enter into any transaction and shall not form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment. Products and services are offered only where Ascenthya and its advisors are licensed to do so, and only after a personal assessment of suitability.

This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, legal, tax, accounting or investment advice. Readers should obtain advice from their own qualified professionals about their particular circumstances before acting on anything in this material.

There can be no assurance that any trend described in this material will continue or will not reverse. Past events and past performance are not indicative of future events or results. Certain statements may be forward looking in nature; such statements are identified by words such as “expect”, “think”, “would”, “likely”, “may” or similar terms, involve risks and uncertainties, and actual events or results may differ materially from those contemplated. Undue reliance should not be placed on them.

Information obtained from third parties, including government and central bank releases, news organisations and market data providers, is believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. Ascenthya makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness, and accepts no liability for any loss arising from its use. Sources are cited so that readers may consult the original releases.

This material may reference the names, trade names or trademarks of companies and institutions that are not affiliated with Ascenthya. Such references are for identification only and do not imply any relationship with, or endorsement by, those parties. Photographs are used under the licence stated in their credit line.

© 2026 Ascenthya. All rights reserved.