Topic · 14 pieces
Geopolitics & trade
Tariffs, trade talks and conflict, and the routes by which they reach Canadian prices and jobs.
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · Morning BriefBrent crude fell 7.63% to US$104.77 a barrel on Monday on hopes of talks to end the U.S.-Iran war.
Mon 2 Nov 2026 · Morning BriefBrent crude fell about 3% to near US$110 a barrel on Monday after Iran floated a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Tue 27 Oct 2026 · Morning BriefThe Bank of Canada decides tomorrow at 06:45 PT, with markets pricing roughly a 75% to 80% chance of a hike to 2.50% and 19 of 34 economists in the Reuters poll expecting one.
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · Morning BriefMoney markets and 19 of 34 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Bank of Canada to raise its overnight rate to 2.50% on Wednesday 28 October, the first increase since July 2023, while Brent eased to US$114.60 after a 6% weekly gain.
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · Morning BriefAugust retail sales rose 1.2% with every subsector up and a 0.7% advance estimate for September, while the Nasdaq fell 2.6% and Brent settled at US$113.17, its highest in five months.
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · Morning BriefScotiabank, Desjardins and BMO now forecast a Bank of Canada hike to 2.50% on 28 October, with swap markets pricing the odds near 80%, and September producer prices jumped 2.0% in the month.
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · Morning BriefThe Parliamentary Budget Officer cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.9%, sees inflation averaging 2.8% this year and now assumes the Bank of Canada starts raising rates in early 2027.
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · Morning BriefAlbertans voted roughly 76% to 24% to remain in Canada, and the Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys show inflation expectations rising nine days before the 28 October rate decision.
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · Morning BriefCanada lost 68,300 jobs in September, a second straight monthly decline, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5%, against a Reuters consensus for a gain of 9,200.
Wed 7 Oct 2026 · Morning BriefCanada’s merchandise trade surplus widened to $4.2 billion in August from $787 million in July, with exports to the United States up 8.1% ahead of the 50% US tariffs that took effect on 22 August.When the news moves, the effects reach your own plans.
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All information in this material is as of 4 November 2026 unless otherwise indicated. Market figures shown in the live rails are supplied by the sources named beneath them and may be delayed.
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