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Markets · 13 Nov 2026Policy rateBank of Canada2.50%YieldsCA 2Y3.33%+8 bpCA 5Y3.53%+7 bpCA 10Y3.78%+6 bpCanadian dollarCAD/USD0.7014−0.01%CAD/EUR0.6356+0.24%CAD/GBP0.5306+0.15%CAD/JPY112.11CryptoBTCUS$64,926−0.97%ETHUS$1,824−0.24%
Friday’s Brief

Morning Brief

Tuesday 10 November 2026

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast, and the Bank of Canada’s October notes say further hikes could be needed.

The desk’s view todayThe Bank of Canada is not done: its October notes leave room for another hike, and the fixed-rate relief since then may not last.

Story 1 of 5

U.S. inflation runs hotter than expected in October

An empty shopping cart in a supermarket aisle lined with shelves of groceries
Photo: Christian Naccarato, via Pexels

01What happened

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, above the 0.3% consensus, after 0.6% in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.

Energy rose 0.7% and food 0.5%. The Bureau did not publish a 12-month rate, because it collected no October 2025 data during last year’s federal shutdown. Going in, futures put the odds of a December Fed hike near 78%.

02Our view

This print strengthens the case for a December Fed hike rather than settling it, because the overshoot came from core prices and food, not only from energy. That keeps upward pressure on U.S. yields, and Canadian yields tend to follow them. A cooler core reading in November, at 0.2% or less, together with falling gasoline prices, would tell us the pressure is fading and change our view.

03Why it matters to you

If you hold a variable-rate mortgage or line of credit, today’s hot U.S. inflation print can keep rates higher for longer. Check how your payment would change with another quarter-point rise.

Book a borrowing review

Sources U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index: October 2026; ActionForex, Economic calendar, week of 9 November 2026; CappNotes, Closing Look: Monday, November 9, 2026; The Weekend Spread, The Close: Monday, November 9, 2026

Story 2 of 5

Oil falls almost 6% as Washington signals restraint on Iran

Aerial view of an oil tanker crossing open ocean
Photo: Alexander Bobrov, via Pexels

01What happened

Brent crude settled down $5.75, or 5.85%, at US$92.57 a barrel on Monday, and West Texas Intermediate fell 4.38% to US$86.85, Reuters reported. Prices slid further after the settlement.

The move followed President Trump’s Sunday comment that fresh strikes on Iran were highly unlikely while talks progress. Shipping was still hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, and Brent had already fallen 16% last week, its steepest weekly drop since early 2020.

02Our view

The fall reflects real progress in diplomacy and a well-supplied physical market, so we expect pump prices to drift lower through November rather than snap back. The relief is fragile while ships are still being struck near Hormuz. A confirmed collapse of the talks or a serious attack that shuts the strait, even briefly, would send Brent back above US$100 quickly and change our view.

03Why it matters to you

If fuel or freight is a big line in your budget or your business costs, lower oil may bring some relief within weeks. Check what you pay now so you can tell when savings arrive.

Book a budget and savings check

Sources Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Oil down more than $7 a barrel in post settlement trade as Trump signals restraint on Iran; Reuters via Insurance Journal, Oil Falls as Trump Signals Restraint on Iran Despite Fresh Shipping Attacks; OilPrice.com, Oil Prices Plunge Below $92 as Trump Signals Restraint on Iran

Story 3 of 5

Stocks jump back, with the TSX at a two-month high

Close-up of a laptop screen showing stock market charts and price data
Photo: Alesia Kozik, via Pexels

01What happened

The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.84% to 36,446.26 on Monday, a two-month high, as lower oil eased inflation worries. In New York, the S&P 500 gained 2.35% to 7,549.94 and the Nasdaq Composite 2.74%, with all 11 S&P 500 sectors higher and the VIX volatility gauge down 22% to 19.92.

Chipmakers led the rebound after last week’s sell-off, while Nvidia fell 4.27% after its board opened an independent review of reports about its chief executive.

02Our view

Monday was a relief rally, not a new trend, and we would not read much into a single day. Markets still face a likely Fed hike in December, an oil price tied to diplomacy, and earnings from the largest chipmaker on 17 November. If the TSX holds above 36,000 after today’s U.S. inflation data and next week’s earnings, we would see broader support for the recovery than we do now.

03Why it matters to you

If your savings sit mainly in index funds, you may own more U.S. technology than you think. Check your overall mix against your plan after this week’s sharp swings.

Book a portfolio review

Sources CappNotes, Closing Look: Monday, November 9, 2026; The Weekend Spread, The Close: Monday, November 9, 2026; Stock Titan, The Stock Market Today, November 9, 2026

Story 4 of 5

Bank of Canada notes keep the door open to more hikes

The Peace Tower on Parliament Hill in Ottawa
Photo via Pexels

01What happened

The summary of the Governing Council’s deliberations for the 28 October decision, released today, shows members agreed there could be a need to raise the overnight rate further after the hike to 2.50%, and that they will decide one meeting at a time, The Canadian Press and the Financial Post reported. The Bank expects inflation near 3.5% by year-end.

Bond markets had been calmer: the five-year Government of Canada bond yieldBond yield The annual return an investor gets for lending to a government or company through a bond. Yields rise when bond prices fall. Fixed mortgage rates are priced from the 5-year Government of Canada yield. closed at 3.36% on 6 November, down from 3.62% on the day of the hike.

02Our view

The summary reads as a Bank that would rather hike once too often than let energy costs spread into broader prices, so we think markets were early to treat October as the last move. We expect the five-year yield to drift back toward 3.6% if Canadian CPI on 16 November stays near 3%. A clear drop in core inflation or a sharp weakening in jobs would make a December hold likely and change our view.

03Why it matters to you

If your mortgage renews in the next 12 months, the Bank’s openness to more hikes matters to you. Check today’s fixed rates against your current rate and your renewal date.

Book a mortgage renewal review

Sources The Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, Bank of Canada moving carefully, but further hikes might be needed: meeting summary; Financial Post via Yahoo Finance, Bank of Canada proceeding carefully with future rate hikes, deliberations show; Bank of Canada, Canadian bond yields: selected benchmark yields; Bank of Canada, Release of the Bank of Canada’s summary of deliberations

Story 5 of 5

Canada’s instant payment system comes under Bank of Canada oversight

A card payment terminal with an inserted card and a printed receipt on a blue background
Photo: crazy motions, via Pexels

01What happened

Governor Tiff Macklem has designated the Real-Time Rail, the new payment system run by Payments Canada, as a prominent payment system under the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act, the Bank announced on 9 November.

The designation brings the system under formal Bank oversight and its risk-management standards, and inside the Bank’s resolution regime. The Bank says the system will clear and settle payments continuously, with funds available immediately, including payments sent by Interac e-Transfer. Its oversight does not extend to consumer protection.

02Our view

This is a quiet but important step towards faster payments in Canada, and formal oversight should make the system sturdier before volumes grow. The practical gains for small firms will depend on how quickly banks offer the service and at what price. If banks are slow to connect or charge heavily for instant payments, the benefit to most businesses and households will stay small for some time.

03Why it matters to you

If you run a business that sends or receives payments, instant settlement changes both cash flow and fraud risk. Check who can approve payments and how you confirm new payees.

Book a business review

Sources Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada designates RTR as a prominent payment system; Bank of Canada, Upcoming events

Today’s news, considered against your own plans.

If one of these stories bears on your mortgage, savings, income or business, we would be glad to go through it with you and explain clearly what, if anything, it means for you.

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All information in this material is as of 10 November 2026 unless otherwise indicated. Market figures shown in the live rails are supplied by the sources named beneath them and may be delayed.

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