Skip to main content
General Public
Ascenthya
Let’s Chat
General Public
Ascenthya
Markets · 13 Nov 2026Policy rateBank of Canada2.50%YieldsCA 2Y3.33%+8 bpCA 5Y3.53%+7 bpCA 10Y3.78%+6 bpCanadian dollarCAD/USD0.7014−0.01%CAD/EUR0.6356+0.24%CAD/GBP0.5306+0.15%CAD/JPY112.11CryptoBTCUS$64,926−0.97%ETHUS$1,824−0.24%
Thursday’s Brief

Morning Brief

Friday 6 November 2026

Budget 2026 projects a $62.3 billion deficit for 2026-27 and proposes an RRSP-for-life and a $250,000 deposit insurance limit.

The desk’s view todayBudget 2026 changes the rules of saving more than the tax rates, and those rule changes deserve more attention than the deficit headline.

Story 1 of 5

Budget 2026: a $62.3 billion deficit and quieter changes to savings and tax rules

The Centre Block and Peace Tower on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, seen through the front gates
Photo: Zicky, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

01What happened

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tabled Budget 2026 on Thursday 5 November. It projects a deficit of $62.3 billion for 2026-27, about $3 billion below the spring update, and $52.9 billion by 2030-31, with federal debt at 39.9% of GDP. It adds $142.1 billion in new measures over five years.

For households, the budget raises the deposit insurance limit to $250,000 from $100,000, proposes an “RRSP-for-life” that merges the RRSP and RRIF so savings no longer have to convert at age 71, and moves the personal tax filing deadline to May 15. For business owners, a new Canada Growth Incentive would exempt up to $15 million of capital gains on eligible investments in Canadian companies, alongside the $36 billion Productivity Mega Deduction for new equipment.

02Our view

This budget changes the plumbing more than the tax rates, and for households the plumbing is what counts. A higher deposit insurance limit and an RRSP that no longer has to become a RRIF at 71 remove two common planning frictions. The deficit path is steady rather than shrinking fast. We would change our mind if the legislation narrows these measures or delays them well past 2027.

03Why it matters to you

If you hold more than $100,000 at one institution or are nearing age 71, these proposals could change your plans. Check which decisions depend on them before the rules are final.

Book a tax planning review

Sources The Canadian Press, Budget 2026: Liberals pin tax changes, billions in spending on ‘economic sovereignty’; Policy Magazine (BMO Capital Markets), Budget 2026 Takeaways: All the Small (and Mega) Things; EnergyNow, Canada’s 2026 federal budget: $289 billion in deficits, major energy investments

Story 2 of 5

AI and chip stocks drag markets to their worst day since April 2025

A trading screen showing colourful stock market charts and price data
Photo: Pexels

01What happened

North American stocks fell sharply on Thursday 5 November as investors sold artificial intelligence and semiconductor shares. The S&P 500 lost 4.36% to 7,353.73 and the Nasdaq composite fell 5.52% to 24,315.00, about 11.9% below its record, which puts it in correction territory. The S&P/TSX composite fell 736.13 points to 35,605.27, hit by technology and base metal losses. The VIX volatility index jumped to 28.18. Reports pointed to weak chip results and concern about tighter data-centre rules after the U.S. midterms.

02Our view

This looks like a repricing of crowded AI expectations rather than the start of a broad recession trade, because defensive sectors held up and bond yields fell in an orderly way. Days like this are a reminder that index exposure can be concentrated. We would change our view if the selling spreads to banks and consumer stocks over the coming week or if credit markets start to show stress.

03Why it matters to you

If you own index funds or a workplace pension, a tech selloff reaches you directly. Check how much of your total equity exposure, across every fund, is in technology.

Book a portfolio review

Sources The Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, S&P/TSX composite down more than 700 points, U.S. stock markets also fall; CappNotes, Closing Look, Thursday, November 5, 2026

Story 3 of 5

Canada sheds jobs for a third month as U.S. hiring jumps

Exterior of a Service Canada Centre on Highway 7 in Markham, Ontario
Photo: Raysonho @ Open Grid Scheduler / Scalable Grid Engine, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

01What happened

Statistics Canada said on Friday 6 November that employment fell by 4,700 in October and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% from 6.5%, its highest since April. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a gain of 13,600 jobs and an unchanged rate. Private-sector employment fell by about 53,000, led by wholesale and retail trade, while the public sector added about 50,000. Wage growth slowed to about 2% from 2.3% in September. In the U.S., payrolls rose by 165,000, well above forecasts near 59,000, with unemployment at 4.1% and hourly earnings up 3.1% over the year.

02Our view

Three straight months of losses and slowing wages point to real slack in Canada, which makes a long run of Bank of Canada hikes less likely even with inflation high. The strong U.S. report keeps the Fed leaning towards tightening, so the gap between the two economies may widen. We would change our view if Canadian hiring and wages recover clearly over the next two reports.

03Why it matters to you

If your household relies on one main income, a rising jobless rate is a useful prompt. Check how many months your savings and any income protection would cover.

Book an income protection check

Sources The Canadian Press via CP24, Unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in October, StatCan says; Reuters via BNN Bloomberg, Canada’s unemployment rate edges up to six-month high in October; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation, October 2026; Kiplinger, What to Expect From the October Jobs Report

Story 4 of 5

Oil bounces back as tanker attacks continue near Hormuz

A large oil tanker sailing through open blue sea
Photo: Pexels

01What happened

Oil recovered part of its post-midterm slide on Thursday 5 November. Brent settled about 3.8% higher at US$98.29 a barrel and WTI rose US$2.40 to US$90.52, after a fall of nearly 9% the day before. On Friday Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two more tankers struck mines near the Strait of Hormuz, a claim maritime officials had not confirmed. Budget 2026 assumes WTI averages US$85 in 2026, up from US$73 in the spring forecast.

02Our view

The midterm plunge priced in a peace deal that is not yet in hand, and the bounce shows how fragile that bet is while attacks continue. We expect oil to stay volatile in a wide band rather than settle. For Canada, high prices help federal revenue but squeeze consumers. We would change our view if shipping through Hormuz returns to normal for several weeks without new incidents.

03Why it matters to you

If fuel, heating or delivery costs are a large part of your spending, oil’s swings reach you within weeks. Check how much slack your monthly budget has for them.

Book a budget and savings check

Sources CappNotes, Closing Look, Thursday, November 5, 2026; The Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, S&P/TSX composite down more than 700 points, U.S. stock markets also fall; CBS News, Iran war updates: more ships attacked in Persian Gulf, oil prices rebound slightly after post-midterm plunge; EnergyNow, Canada’s 2026 federal budget: $289 billion in deficits, major energy investments

Story 5 of 5

Five-year bond yield eases, giving fixed mortgage rates a little room

A modern house with a home for sale sign on the front lawn
Photo: Pexels

01What happened

The Government of Canada five-year bond yieldBond yield The annual return an investor gets for lending to a government or company through a bond. Yields rise when bond prices fall. Fixed mortgage rates are priced from the 5-year Government of Canada yield., which lenders use to price fixed mortgages, eased to 3.43% on 4 November from 3.49% the day before, according to the Bank of Canada. The two-year yield fell to 3.22% and the ten-year to 3.70%. The Bank’s overnight rate stays at 2.50% after the 28 October hike. U.S. two-year yields dropped about 12 basis points on Thursday as investors sought safety during the stock selloff.

02Our view

The dip in yields reflects a flight to safety more than a change in the inflation outlook, so we would not plan a renewal around it. The Bank has signalled that more hikes are possible, which keeps short rates firm. Fixed rates may soften slightly at the margin. We would change our view if Canadian inflation data in November surprise clearly lower and the five-year yield holds under 3.4%.

03Why it matters to you

If your mortgage renews within the next few months, small moves in the five-year yield matter. Check whether your lender offers a rate hold and what it covers.

Book a mortgage renewal review

Sources Bank of Canada, Selected bond yields; CappNotes, Closing Look, Thursday, November 5, 2026

Today’s news, considered against your own plans.

If one of these stories bears on your mortgage, savings, income or business, we would be glad to go through it with you and explain clearly what, if anything, it means for you.

Book a conversation

Free · optional

The Morning Brief in your inbox at 06:00 Pacific.

The day’s stories, what each means for you, and our view. Unsubscribe in one click.

Email subscriptions open shortly.

Sources

Share

Important disclosure information

All information in this material is as of 6 November 2026 unless otherwise indicated. Market figures shown in the live rails are supplied by the sources named beneath them and may be delayed.

See moreSee less

This material is prepared by the Ascenthya Research Desk for informational and educational purposes only. It is general in nature and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. It may be shared by link, but may not be copied, reproduced, republished or distributed in whole or in part, or altered in any way, without the prior written consent of Ascenthya (together with its affiliates, “Ascenthya”).

The views and opinions expressed are those of the Ascenthya Research Desk as of the date shown. They may not reflect the views of Ascenthya as a firm, are subject to change at any time without notice, and Ascenthya has no obligation to update them. Where a view is labelled as a house view, it is an opinion, not a forecast, and the conditions that would change it are stated alongside it.

Nothing in this material constitutes an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security, insurance product or other financial instrument, or to adopt any investment, tax, estate, insurance or financing strategy. It is not an invitation to enter into any transaction and shall not form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment. Products and services are offered only where Ascenthya and its advisors are licensed to do so, and only after a personal assessment of suitability.

This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, legal, tax, accounting or investment advice. Readers should obtain advice from their own qualified professionals about their particular circumstances before acting on anything in this material.

There can be no assurance that any trend described in this material will continue or will not reverse. Past events and past performance are not indicative of future events or results. Certain statements may be forward looking in nature; such statements are identified by words such as “expect”, “think”, “would”, “likely”, “may” or similar terms, involve risks and uncertainties, and actual events or results may differ materially from those contemplated. Undue reliance should not be placed on them.

Information obtained from third parties, including government and central bank releases, news organisations and market data providers, is believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. Ascenthya makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness, and accepts no liability for any loss arising from its use. Sources are cited so that readers may consult the original releases.

This material may reference the names, trade names or trademarks of companies and institutions that are not affiliated with Ascenthya. Such references are for identification only and do not imply any relationship with, or endorsement by, those parties. Photographs are used under the licence stated in their credit line.

© 2026 Ascenthya. All rights reserved.