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Markets · 13 Nov 2026Policy rateBank of Canada2.50%YieldsCA 2Y3.33%+8 bpCA 5Y3.53%+7 bpCA 10Y3.78%+6 bpCanadian dollarCAD/USD0.7014−0.01%CAD/EUR0.6356+0.24%CAD/GBP0.5306+0.15%CAD/JPY112.11CryptoBTCUS$64,926−0.97%ETHUS$1,824−0.24%
Wednesday’s Brief

Morning Brief

Thursday 5 November 2026

Wall Street and the TSX gave back Wednesday’s election rally on Thursday, with the Nasdaq down about 5% late in the session on an AI chip selloff, as Budget 2026 is tabled in Ottawa.

The desk’s view todayBudget 2026 will spend on sovereignty and security themes rather than cut the deficit, and markets should expect more federal borrowing, not less.

Story 1 of 5

Budget 2026 lands this afternoon with a bigger deficit already in view

The Centre Block and Peace Tower of Canada’s Parliament on Parliament Hill, Ottawa
Photo: Brent Eades, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

01What happened

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tables Budget 2026, titled “Masters of Our Destiny”, in the House of Commons today. He described it on 4 November as giving Canada a “strong footing” in a more volatile world.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer said in October that new spending has pushed deficits about $3 billion a year deeper than it projected in June, leaving the shortfall above $63 billion in 2030-31 against the $53 billion Ottawa projected in April.

02Our view

Expect a budget that spends on sovereignty themes, defence, energy and trade adjustment, rather than one that trims the deficit. The fiscal anchor has already slipped, and a government framing the moment as nation-building is unlikely to pivot to restraint. A credible, dated path back to a balanced operating budget, with named savings, would prove us wrong and would be welcome news for long-term bond yields.

03Why it matters to you

If you are planning to sell an asset with a large gain or change how your business pays you, read today’s budget tax measures first. Check which changes apply from budget night and which later.

Book a tax planning review

Sources The Hub, Champagne sets Nov. 5 budget date as watchdog warns deficits are deepening; Global News, Budget 2026 title and theme focus on Canada’s sovereignty, minister reveals; The Canadian Press via CTV News, Budget 2026 is about giving Canada a ‘strong footing’: Champagne

Story 2 of 5

Stocks give back the election rally as an AI chip selloff hits Wall Street and the TSX

The New York Stock Exchange building on Wall Street, New York
Photo: Ken Lund from Reno, Nevada, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

01What happened

Markets reversed sharply on Thursday 5 November. Late in the U.S. session, at 3:47 p.m. ET, the Dow was down about 1,769 points or 3.3%, the S&P 500 about 4% and the Nasdaq 5.3%, while the Philadelphia semiconductor index had fallen more than 10%. The TSX was down more than 2% and below 36,000 by early afternoon, led by technology and the banks, after Wednesday’s 809-point gain to 36,341.40.

The selling centred on chipmakers and other companies tied to the AI data-centre build-out, on worries that high borrowing costs and possible new rules after the midterms could slow construction. The U.S. 10-year yield eased to about 4.84%, gold rose and the Canadian dollar slipped to 71.44 U.S. cents.

02Our view

Two days, one up 2% and one down 2%, tell you that markets are trading headlines, not earnings, and neither day should drive a decision. The bigger lesson is concentration: the AI trade now carries enough weight to swing whole indexes. A run of profit warnings from the largest chip and cloud companies would change our mind and turn this from a shakeout into a deeper repricing.

03Why it matters to you

If you hold index funds in an RRSP, TFSA or pension, you may own more AI-linked stocks than you think. Check how much of your portfolio rides on that one theme.

Book a portfolio review

Sources Yahoo Finance, Stock market today: Nasdaq plunges 5% amid chip stock wipeout, Dow and S&P 500 erase post-election rally gains; The Associated Press via Spectrum News, A wipeout for AI stocks sends Wall Street tumbling, and the S&P 500 drops more than 3%; The Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, S&P/TSX composite down nearly 500 points, U.S. stock markets also fall; InstaForex, TSX Falls on Global Technology Selloff; The Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, S&P/TSX composite jumps more than 800 points, U.S. stocks soar after midterms

Story 3 of 5

Oil falls 8% to a two-month low, then steadies on fresh Hormuz reports

A crude oil tanker moored at an oil terminal
Photo: Rangan Datta Wiki, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

01What happened

Brent crude settled down 8.67% at US$94.62 a barrel on Wednesday and U.S. crude fell US$7.97 to US$88.12, a two-month low, its third straight daily fall. Traders bet a Democratic Congress will add pressure to end the war with Iran, and Washington and Tehran have signalled openness to talks.

On Thursday Brent recovered about 2% to near US$97 after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said two tankers and a tugboat caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. crude was up about 3% near US$90.66 in the afternoon.

02Our view

The fall is real relief, but it rests on hopes for talks, not on any change in tanker traffic through Hormuz, so prices can swing back quickly. We expect pump prices to ease over the coming weeks rather than collapse. A signed agreement that reopens normal shipping through the strait would make us more confident that lower oil is here to stay.

03Why it matters to you

If fuel or heating is a large share of your monthly costs, oil prices can swing either way this winter. Check how a 20% rise from here would change your budget and savings.

Book a budget and savings check

Sources CappNotes, Closing Look: Wednesday, November 4, 2026; The Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, S&P/TSX composite jumps more than 800 points, U.S. stocks soar after midterms; Trading Economics, Brent crude oil; Yahoo Finance, Stock market today: Nasdaq plunges 5% amid chip stock wipeout, Dow and S&P 500 erase post-election rally gains

Story 4 of 5

Bank of England raises rates to 4% and warns inflation may reach 5%

The Bank of England building in the City of London
Photo: Elisa.rolle, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

01What happened

The Bank of England raised its Bank Rate by 0.25 points to 4% on Thursday, its first increase in more than three years, by an 8 to 1 vote; one member wanted a half-point rise. It now expects U.K. inflation, 3.5% in September, to peak near 5% in mid-2027 and not return to 2% until late 2028.

Governor Andrew Bailey said the move should not be seen as the first in a long run of hikes, but a further rise looks likely unless the Middle East conflict is resolved.

02Our view

The Bank of England’s hike confirms that major central banks see the oil shock as an inflation problem first and a growth problem second. That makes a quick return to rate cuts in Canada unlikely, even after Wednesday’s fall in oil. A sustained drop in oil below US$90 that pulls inflation forecasts down would change our mind and reopen the case for easier policy next year.

03Why it matters to you

If your mortgage renews within the next 12 months, global rate moves will shape your options. Check your renewal date and the payment you could carry at today’s fixed rates.

Book a mortgage renewal review

Sources Reuters via BusinessDay, Bank of England raises rates for first time since 2023; Anadolu Agency via A News, Bank of England raises interest rate to 4%, sees inflation reaching 5% in 2027; Bank of Canada, Selected bond yields

Story 5 of 5

Canada’s trade surplus widens to $5.4 billion, carried by oil and gold

A container ship loaded with shipping containers alongside cranes at a container terminal
Photo: Matti Blume, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

01What happened

Statistics Canada reported on 4 November that Canada’s merchandise trade surplus rose to $5.4 billion in September from $4.95 billion in August (revised). Exports edged up 0.2% to $78.6 billion as energy exports rose 8.2% and metal and mineral products, including gold, rose 8.6%.

Underneath, export volumes fell 4%, eight of 11 export categories declined, and exports excluding energy and metals fell 5.6%. The surplus with the United States was $12.3 billion.

02Our view

This is a price story, not a strength story, and it may fade with oil’s fall this week. Strip out energy and metals and Canadian exporters had a weak September, consistent with the trade uncertainty businesses keep reporting. A rise in export volumes outside energy in the October data, due in early December, would show demand is holding up and change our reading.

03Why it matters to you

If your business sells goods to U.S. customers, falling export volumes are an early signal of slower orders. Check your order book and how long your cash reserves would last.

Book a business review

Sources The Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, StatCan reports $5.4B merchandise trade surplus for September; investingLive, Canada trade balance for September +5.35B vs +4.1B estimate

Today’s news, considered against your own plans.

If one of these stories bears on your mortgage, savings, income or business, we would be glad to go through it with you and explain clearly what, if anything, it means for you.

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All information in this material is as of 5 November 2026 unless otherwise indicated. Market figures shown in the live rails are supplied by the sources named beneath them and may be delayed.

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